Clean Heat Market Mechanism

The introduction of the Government’s Clean Heat Market Mechanism, which will effectively fine gas and boiler manufacturers who don’t do enough help the switch to heat pump technology, has been greeted with dismay by some traditionalists.

That’s to be expected, they are following the pattern of the Change Curve – a model based on studies by psychiatrist Elisabeth Kubler-Ross in the 1960s.

Originally designed to help with the grieving process, the change curve has since been developed to understand people’s reaction to significant upheaval.

The curve has three stages, the first covers shock and denial which comes with being comfortable with the status quo and feeling threatened by a changing future.

In terms of climate change and the need to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels most of the world has now probably moved on from that and the doubters are entering stage two of the change curve – that of anger and depression.

The lowest point of the curve comes when the anger begins to wear off and the realisation that the change is genuine hits. For opponents of change, this can lead to scepticism and frustration.

CHMM is seen as a crucial part the Government’s strategy to meet its international climate change commitment of reaching Net Zero by 2050. Replacing household fossil fuel boilers with heat pumps is seen as essential to meeting this goal. It’s also recognised that some will need more persuading than others.

The Government has set a target of 600,000 heat pumps to be installed each year by 2028. There’s still a way to go. In 2022, despite homeowners being offered up to £6,000 to make the switch, there were 72,000 installations, although has now increased to £7,500.

A reluctance of some manufacturers to engage with the change, the crossing point from stage one to stage two of the change curve, is being cited as one hurdle that needs to be overcome and that’s where CHMM comes in.

From 2024, manufacturers of heating appliances will gain credits for the percentage of low carbon heat pump sales relative to fossil fuel boilers. They need to build up credits equivalent to 4% of all sales of gas boilers over 20,000 units and 4% of oil boiler sales above 1,000 units.

Those falling short will be fined £3,000 per missed sale. The target will increase to 6% of sales in 2025.

The change curve is now widely used to predict how performance is likely to be affected by significant change and hopefully CHMM will help bring the industry into stage three, that of acceptance and integration.

The switch from horse power to motor car took 20 years, the transition from film to digital photography took a similar time scale and in both cases there was resistance which was finally overcome in stage three of the change curve.

In this stage individuals accept change is inevitable and engage. A more optimistic and enthusiastic future emerges where new opportunities are recognised. The pace of transition speeds up and before long what had been the status quo becomes the past.